Changelog

Report update: CSG's first-half results, the antimony deadline, AAC's powder pause and an October assessment. #

Added CSG's H1 2026 results (defense +27%, Ammo+ −11.5%) and the November 27 deadline on China's antimony export suspension. Corrected the AAC account: production paused in December 2025 over a powder shortage, and the brand returned as PSA Ammo in July 2026. Added the Make American Guns Again Act (FY2027 NDAA) beside EO 14415, Serbia's ammunition export halt, and an October note to Our assessment. Updated copper prices.

5.56 NATO methodology corrected: .223 Remington no longer counted. #

.223 Remington had been incorrectly folded into the 5.56 NATO figures and is no longer counted within the 5.56 NATO category. This is a data-accuracy correction, not a market shift: True Market Presence™ for 5.56 NATO moves from 11.9% to 12.3%, and American Market Presence™ moves from 3.0% to 3.5%.

Section 5 updated: Winchester's $788.4M Army contract and munitions funding. #

Added Winchester's $788.4M five-year Army IDIQ (Sept 10, 2026, sole-bid) and Iran war funding context: Pentagon's $1.5T munitions request (Duffey/Bloomberg, Sept 11), Congress punting the $200B near-term piece to a December lame-duck vote (Sept 13), and CENTCOM's public "not concerned" stance on the same stockpiles (Sept 13). Added references 23–27.

Major update: report rebuilt around American Owned & Made availability, measured daily. #

Restructured report around American Owned & Made vs blended availability data, powered by live daily distributor data from FIDO (data.firehole.com). Introduced True Market Presence™ and American Market Presence™ as standardized metrics replacing the prior availability range format. Added "How We Measure" methodology section including American Made, American Owned definition, 250-unit commercial depth threshold, and pipeline context. Added "The American Ownership Picture" section with September 2026 data — 9 total American-owned qualifying listings across five calibers; .357 Magnum at zero. Added EO 14415 analysis. Added "What This Means For You" consumer section. Added "The Domestic Alternative" section covering WRE expansion. Updated CSG narrative with Nordic Police contract (August 2026), Iowa Army Artillery Complex groundbreaking (July 2026), and CSG IPO/debt structure. Added September 2026 component price increase notices (10–30%, first-person confirmed). Updated history tables with September 2026 True Market Presence™ figures. Previous June 2026 narrative preserved at Supply Report Archive. Added references 18–22.

Update: .357 Magnum and .45 ACP FMJ added to tracked calibers. #

Added 357 Magnum and 45 ACP FMJ to tracked calibers (first observation, no prior baseline). Refreshed 9mm, 5.56 NATO, and 300 Blackout FMJ availability ranges with current distributor data. Added FBI's $77.4M Federal/Remington contract and Fiocchi's scrapped Little Rock primer facility, with link to our American Made Primers resource. Added CSG/Kinetic Group family-wide June 2026 price increase. Flagged unverified inventory data from one distributor listing and excluded it from our figures.

Update: Berry's component price increase and the Lake City strike's resolution. #

Added Berry's Manufacturing component pricing increase (effective July 8, 2026) to Wholesale Pricing Pressure section. Expanded Lake City Army Ammunition Plant section to include strike resolution (May 7, 2026), military demand absorption of commercial overrun, and active Warren/Kim/Garcia/Raskin legislation to ban civilian sales from government-contracted facilities.

Update: CSG/Kinetic developments, the Lake City strike and nitrocellulose supply. #

Added post-acquisition CSG/Kinetic developments, Federal Ammunition U.S. Army agreement, counter-drone ammunition production analysis, Lake City strike, nitrocellulose supply chain context, Winchester pricing data, AAC production closure, AmmoSquared competing characterizations, and references section.

Initial publication of the Ammunition Supply Report. #