The 2026 Ammunition Supply Report

We are not analysts. We are not a trade publication. We are a family-owned domestic ammunition manufacturer based in Travelers Rest, South Carolina. We purchase components, monitor distributor inventories daily, and load ammunition here in the United States. Beginning in early 2026, we noticed something unusual — common FMJ calibers began disappearing from national distribution channels before most retail customers were aware anything had changed.

This report exists because we believe you deserve to know what we see inside the supply chain, not weeks after it shows up on store shelves. We update it when conditions change. We say so when we get something wrong. Previous analysis from June 2026 and prior is preserved at our Supply Report Archive.

We see the ammunition market from an angle most people don't. We are not a retail store watching shelves empty or wondering when they will. We are not a trade publication tracking industry announcements. We are a manufacturer — we buy components, we load ammunition here in South Carolina, and we monitor distributor feeds daily. That position gives us visibility into the supply chain before conditions show up at retail.

What we measure reflects that vantage point. The figures in this report come from wholesale distributor inventory — the layer between manufacturer and gun store — filtered through a methodology we've developed to strip out paper listings and shallow stock that won't survive any real dealer order pressure. The definitions below lay out exactly how that works.

What "in stock" actually means in this report

All figures in this report reflect wholesale distributor inventory — the pipeline that supplies retail stores. What you see here today typically reaches or fails to reach store shelves within two to four weeks. This is not retail data. It is upstream data. That distinction is why this report exists: retail shortages become visible weeks after the distributor-level signals we track begin deteriorating.

What we count

We count ball: non-expanding range and practice ammunition. That means full metal jacket (including enclosed-base designs such as Winclean), total metal jacket, flat point, plated round nose and frangible. Hollow points, soft points, match (OTM), polymer-tipped, total synthetic jacket (TSJ) and cast-lead loads are not counted.

The 250-unit commercial depth threshold

We do not count a listing as meaningfully available unless at least 250 units are in stock at the distributor level. In national distribution, fewer than 250 units represents one or two small dealers' orders — it is allocated before it is shipped and will not benefit the broader market. Our availability figures reflect commercial depth, not paper listings.

What True Market Presence™ means

True Market Presence™ is our measure of how much of a caliber's full catalogued universe actually has commercial-depth stock available right now. It is calculated as: qualifying listings (≥250 units in stock) divided by total catalogued listings across all distributors. A True Market Presence™ of 6.6% for 9mm means that only 6.6% of all 9mm FMJ offerings tracked across national distribution have meaningful stock available today.

What American Market Presence™ means

American Market Presence™ applies the same calculation to American Owned & Made brands only. It shows what fraction of the total catalogued market is covered by American-owned, American-manufactured FMJ at commercial depth.

Our definition of American Owned & Made

For purposes of this report, a brand qualifies as American Owned & Made if: (1) the ammunition is manufactured in the United States, and (2) the ultimate parent company is majority-owned by U.S. persons or entities. Brands that import and rebadge foreign-manufactured ammunition do not qualify regardless of branding. Brands manufactured domestically under foreign corporate ownership do not qualify regardless of manufacturing location.

We recognize that foreign-owned, U.S.-manufactured brands employ thousands of hardworking American citizens whose skill and labor are not in question. The distinction we draw is where financial decisions are made and where profits ultimately flow. That is a corporate structure fact, not a political opinion.

Our data sources

We track multiple major national distributors. Distributor inventory data refreshes every 24 hours. Availability figures reflect the most recent daily snapshot. All information is accurate as of the date recorded in the report header. This expanded distributor pool is not directly comparable to figures published before September 2026, which reflected a smaller data set. Prior data is preserved in our Supply Report Archive.

Note: We will not publish distributor costs. Any mention of costs is by inference or comparison only.

The caliber figures above tell two stories simultaneously. The blended True Market Presence™ numbers — 6.6% to 40.6% depending on caliber — describe overall market health. The American Market Presence™ numbers tell a different story entirely.

Count them across all five calibers we track: thirty-seven American Owned & Made listings are stocked at commercial depth (250 units or more at a single national distributor) today. That is the entire American-owned supply at scale in national distribution for five of the most common calibers in the country, and the caliber sections above show exactly where each one sits.

Winchester and Hornady are effectively carrying nearly all of the American-owned FMJ market at meaningful stock levels across all five calibers. That is two companies. It also means that virtually all of the blended availability you see in the True Market Presence™ numbers is being supplied by either foreign-owned U.S.-manufactured brands or imported ammunition — not by American-owned companies.

IMPORTANT: This is not a criticism of those brands or the hard working Americans who make them. It is an observation about what the market looks like when you separate the data by ownership structure. We think that separation matters and we believe you deserve to see it.

The federal government agrees this matters

On July 20, 2026, the White House signed Executive Order 14415, which defines "foreign ownership, control, or influence" as a risk when a foreign interest has the power — whether exercised or not — to direct matters affecting company operations in ways that may adversely affect national security. The order requires assessment of suppliers for foreign ownership risk and manufacturing vulnerability. White House adviser Peter Navarro described it plainly: "This is not paperwork. It is battlefield preparation."

The brands that supply most of America's ammunition are now owned by a company that fits the description EO 14415 was written to address. We did not write that definition. The White House did. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

Congress is now asking the same question. The Make American Guns Again Act, included in the House's FY2027 defense bill (passed July 22, 2026), would require the Secretary of War to report by March 15, 2027 on the small arms and light weapons U.S. forces use that are made abroad, or made here by subsidiaries of foreign-owned companies, and to recommend buying more from American-owned makers. (Ref 36) It covers firearms, not ammunition. But it uses the same test this report does: not where it's made, but who owns the company that makes it.

We don't have a crystal ball, and we're not going to pretend we have visibility into every production decision being made across the industry. What we do have is a front-row seat to what's moving through wholesale distribution, what our component suppliers are telling us, and what we can read from publicly available information. Here's our plain read on it.

The brands you grew up with now work for someone else — a foreign defense conglomerate

Federal, Remington, CCI, Speer, and HEVI-Shot — the bulk of the Kinetic Group. If you've been shooting for more than ten minutes, you know these names. In November 2024, a Czech company called CSG bought all of them — the whole Kinetic Group — for $2.2 billion. Two months after the deal closed, CSG's own board member told Reuters that growing military sales was the primary reason they made the purchase. He wasn't being coy about it.

In January 2026, CSG took itself public on a European stock exchange and raised nearly $4 billion in what was reported as the largest defense IPO ever recorded. They now carry €3 billion in debt and answer to institutional shareholders every quarter. Those shareholders aren't interested in keeping your gun store stocked. They're interested in defense contracts, and CSG is delivering. Their defense revenue grew 55% in 2025. They signed a €250 million artillery deal in April 2026. Federal signed directly with the U.S. Army in June. The FBI handed Federal and Remington a $77.4 million rifle ammunition contract — all four product categories — that same month. In August, Federal landed a seven-year deal to supply Nordic Police agencies across five countries with up to 35 million rounds.

And now CSG is breaking ground on a new artillery production complex at the Iowa Army Ammunition Plant — up to $635 million — through their U.S. subsidiary. They aren't just selling to the military. They're building military infrastructure on American soil.

CSG's own first-half 2026 results show where the company's growth is. Its defense business grew 27%, to €2.62 billion. Ammo+, the small-caliber unit that makes Federal, Remington, CCI and Speer, shrank 11.5%, to €631 million. Defense is now more than 80% of CSG's revenue, against an order backlog of €17 billion. (Ref 28) CSG blamed the steepest part of the slide, a 20.5% drop in the first quarter, on "challenging conditions in the US commercial channel," and says U.S. commercial volumes have been recovering since. (Ref 29) Whatever the reason for the dip, the direction of the company is plain: its growth, and the €2.9 billion of net debt it carries, ride on defense contracts. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

The company that makes the ammo on most American gun store shelves has a war to supply. When military contracts and your range ammo compete for the same production capacity, you already know who wins. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

The raw materials for ammunition components keep getting more expensive

Copper. Lead. Antimony. Nitrocellulose. None of it is getting cheaper.

Copper hit a new all-time high in August 2026, above $6.70 a pound on the London Metal Exchange, and has averaged more than $6.00 a pound this year, because the EV industry, renewable energy projects, and data centers are all competing for the same supply that ammunition manufacturers need. (Ref 30) Brass is a copper-zinc alloy. Every case, every jacket — costs more.

Antimony is the one with a date on it. China banned antimony exports to the United States in December 2024, then suspended that ban on November 9, 2025, until November 27, 2026. (Ref 32) The U.S. imports about 91% of the antimony it uses, and 40% of what it uses goes into antimonial lead and ammunition. The average price in 2025 was $25 a pound, more than double 2024's. (Ref 31) Antimony hardens the lead in bullet cores and goes into primers. If the suspension lapses, that gets harder to buy. We'll update this note after November 27.

Smokeless powder is the uglier story. In December 2025, AAC — a major producer of affordable training ammunition — paused production at its South Carolina plant, citing an "unforeseen powder shortage." Industry analysts tie that shortage to powder allocations moving to military contracts. (Ref 33) The brand came back in July 2026 as PSA Ammo, with suppressor, training and precision lines, and says its own powder supply is still coming online. No date has been given. (Ref 34)

Here's something we can tell you with certainty, because it landed in our inbox: starting in September 2026, we have received notices from multiple component suppliers of price increases ranging from 10% to 30% on brass, projectiles, and propellant. These aren't projections. They are notices. That cost is going to move through the supply chain — first to finished ammunition at wholesale, then to what you pay at retail. It hasn't hit you yet. It will.

Canada committed $355.7 million to build domestic nitrocellulose production capacity earlier this year. The U.S. is still talking about it in committee. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

Lake City — the country's biggest small-caliber ammo plant — went dark for a month

The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is the single largest producer of military small-caliber ammunition in the United States. It's also the source of the commercial 5.56 overflow that supplies roughly 30% of civilian demand — the production overruns that Winchester sells to your gun store.

In April 2026, over 1,300 workers went on strike. They came back May 7 when a new deal was ratified. A month of production at the most important ammunition plant in America, gone. Military backfill gets prioritized. The civilian overflow comes from what's left over.

That overflow was already shrinking before the strike. As military demand grows, more of Lake City's output goes to fulfilling military contracts and less ends up in civilian distribution. That's been happening throughout 2026.

And in March 2026, Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation to ban Lake City and similar government-contracted plants from selling to civilians altogether. Co-sponsored by Senators Warren and Kim and Representatives Garcia and Raskin, the bill hasn't moved: no committee has acted on it since it was introduced in March. (Ref 35) If it ever does, 30% of civilian 5.56 supply is gone by law, not by circumstance.

Lake City's production is now committed to military orders through 2031, on a single bid. On September 10, 2026, the Army awarded Olin Winchester — the contractor that has run Lake City Army Ammunition Plant since October 2020 — a $788.4 million, five-year indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for 5.56mm, 7.62mm, and .50-caliber ammunition, running through September 10, 2031. It isn't new capacity; it's the same 1.4-billion-round-a-year pipeline we've been tracking since the April 2026 strike, re-committed to military orders for another half-decade. And it was sole-bid — one company submitted, one company won — which tells you plainly who else in America is positioned to produce small-caliber ammunition at this scale: nobody. When the plant that dominates domestic 5.56/7.62/.50 production locks its output to the Army on a no-competition basis, the civilian overflow this report has tracked all year isn't competing against a strike anymore. It's competing against a five-year contract.

A new product category is using the same factories that make your ammo

Drone Round Defense shares leadership, facilities, and production infrastructure with Freedom Munitions, LAX Ammunition, Ammo Load, and X-Treme Components — all operating out of Lewiston, Idaho. They're producing anti-drone 5.56 and 7.62 ammunition for military and law enforcement. U.S. Army troops trained with it in April 2026. More calibers are coming.

This is not a separate facility. Same building. Same equipment. Same people. Just a different customer — and that customer isn't you.

We can tell you this firsthand because X-Treme Components was our primary supplier of brass and projectiles. In February 2026 — the same month we first noticed FMJ disappearing from distributor feeds — all purchase orders got pushed back by months. We went and found other suppliers. A lot of smaller manufacturers couldn't. That's not a theory about what happened. That's what we lived through, and we hear the same story consistently from other small OEMs we stay in contact with. The pushback moved through the supply chain and showed up as empty shelves. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

We don't hold any of this against the companies involved. Business is business. But facts are facts, and these are the facts.

The war that's draining the stockpiles this contract is meant to help refill isn't over, and Washington can't agree on how urgent that is

Two days before the Winchester award, the Pentagon's top weapons buyer, Michael Duffey, told Bloomberg the department needs the full $1.5 trillion it has requested from Congress to rebuild munitions stocks — Patriot, Tomahawk, THAAD, Standard Missiles — depleted by the ongoing Iran war. (Ref 24) Two days after that, Congress punted the nearer-term $200 billion piece of that ask to a lame-duck vote in December, after the midterms, rather than cast it beforehand. (Ref 25) And on the Sunday in between, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper went on Face the Nation and said he's "not concerned at all" about the same stockpiles Duffey was asking Congress to fund — including outside reporting that roughly 45% of Patriot interceptors and nearly 80% of THAAD interceptors have been expended since the war began. (Refs 26, 27) It's the same line the administration has held since Trump's September 3rd claim that the U.S. has "virtually unlimited" ammunition.

Take that for what you will (Opinion — see disclaimer below.): you don't usually send your acquisition chief to ask Congress for $1.5 trillion to refill stocks you're not worried about. Whichever version is true, the military's demand for the same production base that makes your 5.56 isn't going anywhere in the near term — and the people in charge of paying for it just kicked the decision past an election.

Imports aren't picking up the slack

Imported ammunition has historically served as a buffer — when domestic supply gets tight, imports have helped fill the gap. That buffer has shrunk, disrupted by a mix of geopolitical, logistical, and regulatory pressures that aren't resolving quickly. At our 250-unit commercial depth threshold, there are currently eight imported 5.56 FMJ listings with meaningful stock across the national distributors we track. The buffer that used to smooth things out isn't there right now.

One reason is Serbia. In June 2025 its president halted ammunition exports, saying output would go to Serbia's own army and stockpiles. Serbia is home to Prvi Partizan, one of the largest import brands on American shelves, and the halt hasn't been lifted. (Ref 37)

Not everything in this report is a warning. There is a domestic counterpoint worth saying plainly.

White River Energetics — located in Des Arc, Arkansas, and the manufacturer of the primers Firehole Ordnance distributes — is investing $70 million in American production capacity: $10 million to expand their existing primer facility and $60 million to build a new smokeless propellant factory. That propellant investment directly addresses one of the most acute vulnerabilities in the current supply chain. WRE is creating 100 new American jobs in the process.

At the exact moment CSG is building European nitrocellulose and propellant capacity for military supply chains, White River Energetics is building American propellant capacity for the domestic civilian and commercial market. These are companies making different bets about what the market needs. We know which bet we're standing behind.

Disclosure: Firehole Ordnance is a distributor of White River Energetics primers and we utilize those primers exclusively in our manufacturing of ammunition. We have a commercial relationship and a stated preference for American-owned supply chains. We have tried to make that preference visible rather than invisible throughout this report. Where we state something as fact, it is backed by a cited source. Where we offer interpretation, we have marked it as opinion.

Not everyone in the industry describes current conditions the way we do. Dan Morton of AmmoSquared — one of the top ten commercial ammunition buyers in the United States, purchasing 5.3 million rounds per month with direct manufacturer relationships — characterized the Spring 2026 market as "uneven" rather than a shortage. His assessment: supply is tightening, prices are rising, lead times are lengthening, but nothing is nationally out of stock.

We don't disagree with that characterization at the retail level. It is consistent with what we described earlier as retail lag. A top-tier buyer with direct manufacturer relationships and 25 million rounds in stored inventory has tools and visibility that smooth out market stress before it becomes visible to end consumers. That is the value of their model.

What we would note is that nine days after characterizing the market as "uneven," AmmoSquared published internal support documentation explaining how they manage ammunition shortages. Dan Morton confirmed directly in that article that as of May 7, 2026, their allocation system was actively running — with Autobuys spending time in Pending while inventory is confirmed. The article also describes additional protocols — exchange toggles, Buy More restrictions, Allocations Paused status — that can be deployed as conditions worsen. A top-tier buyer with 25 million rounds in storage confirming their allocation system is actively engaged tells you something about the underlying market conditions.

(Sources: AmmoSquared Blog April 28, 2026; AmmoSquared Support Documentation May 7, 2026)

Written September 2026. The figures above update every day; this assessment is revised when our view changes, and each revision is dated in the changelog.

The June 2026 version of this report described conditions as the early-to-middle stages of a tightening cycle. Three months later, the blended availability numbers have improved modestly. The American ownership picture has not.

What has changed since June: our data infrastructure now covers multiple major national distributors with daily refresh, giving us a materially more complete picture than we had in the spring. That expanded view shows more total listings in the catalog — and confirms that the vast majority of available inventory at commercial depth is supplied by foreign-owned or imported brands.

What has not changed: the structural pressures we identified in June — military demand absorbing production capacity, raw material cost pressure, institutional contract prioritization over commercial distribution — are all still in place and in several cases have intensified. Two new Federal contracts signed since June (Nordic Police, Iowa Army Artillery Complex) confirm that CSG's military revenue strategy is executing as stated.

What is new: component price increases of 10–30% effective September 2026 represent a cost shock to finished ammunition production that has not yet flowed through to retail. When it does, the retail prices you see today will not reflect what's coming. The retail lag we described in June is about to reset in the wrong direction.

Our assessment has not materially changed: this is a structural condition, not a short cycle. American-owned FMJ at commercial depth falls short of Adequate in four of the five calibers we track. Component prices are rising. The companies that supply most of America's ammunition have other priorities.

Plan accordingly.

October 2026. Our view hasn't changed, and the October data doesn't argue with it. Several caliber ratings moved this month, but every one of those moves came from counting more accurately: better brand identification, products we had missed, and a broader published definition of ball ammunition. None came from more American-owned ammunition reaching distribution. Each change is dated in the changelog. What did change is the evidence around the market. CSG's own results show its growth riding on defense. A powder shortage paused a South Carolina ammunition plant. Serbia's exports remain halted. China's antimony suspension runs out on November 27. Component prices are still rising. We'll revise this view when the market moves the numbers, not our method.

The above represents our informed opinion as a domestic manufacturer actively monitoring distribution conditions. It is not a guarantee of future market behavior. See our full opinion disclaimer below.

This report contains two distinct types of content and we want to be clear about which is which.

What is observation: The distributor availability figures cited in this report reflect our own monitoring of select national distributors and wholesalers. We check these numbers regularly as part of our normal purchasing and production planning activity. They are real numbers from real distributor systems. They are not comprehensive industry data — they represent what we can see from where we sit — but they are not fabricated or extrapolated.

What is opinion: Statements regarding the causes of current supply conditions — including institutional demand absorption, manufacturer inventory posture, component ecosystem stress, and import disruption — represent our informed opinion based on available evidence, industry experience, and direct supply chain participation. We believe these assessments are reasonable and well-supported. We also acknowledge that we do not have visibility into every manufacturer's production decisions, every distributor's inventory strategy, or every factor influencing current market conditions.

What this means for you: We are not analysts, economists, or market forecasters. We are a family-owned ammunition manufacturer who watches this market closely because our livelihood depends on it. When we say we think conditions will remain constrained through the remainder of 2026, that is our honest assessment — not a guaranteed prediction, not an attempt to manufacture urgency, and not a sales tactic.

We will update this report as conditions change. We will note each update in the changelog at the bottom of this page. If we get something wrong, we will say so.

Nothing in this report constitutes financial, investment, or purchasing advice. Firehole LLC makes no warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of the market observations contained herein. All forward-looking statements are opinion only.

Firehole LLC is a family-owned and operated business based in Travelers Rest, South Carolina, founded and led by the Mathis family. Our name comes from the Firehole River in Yellowstone National Park — one of the most beautiful places God created, and a place that shaped our family long before this business existed.

We built Firehole on a simple and unwavering commitment: to conduct every part of our business in accordance with our faith and for the glory of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. We view this business as a ministry-first endeavor, not merely as a means to make a living, but as a way to serve others, honor God, and build something lasting together as a family. First fruits are always provided for God's Kingdom. Whatever is left is more than we deserve.

That foundation shapes everything we make and everything we say — including this report. We publish honest supply chain analysis because integrity in all things means telling customers what we actually see, not what is convenient to say. If the data changes, this page changes.

Firehole Arms ammunition is manufactured domestically in Travelers Rest, South Carolina using American-made primers sourced from White River Energetics. We sell within the United States only. We make the Gospel of John available free of charge — no purchase necessary, no obligation — to anyone who wants one. Request yours at firehole.com/bible.

We will make mistakes — we have before and we will again. Moving forward, when we do, we will own them and handle them with the same integrity we ask of everyone we work with.

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Current availability

• 9MM 124gr CPHP: 200 cartridge range bag. Shop
• 9MM 124gr CPHP: 50 cartridges. Shop
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Current production

The following cartridges are currently in production as allocated products. Please contact us directly if interested or you have any questions.

• 300 Blackout 147gr FMJ
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• 45 ACP
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