Changelog

Classification update: .300 AAC Blackout and .45 ACP, no rating changes. #

Bullet types were identified from the products’ listings. 4 items in .300 AAC Blackout's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 72 → 68; TMP 27.8% → 29.4%; AMP 11.1% → 11.8%; at scale and rating unchanged. 1 item previously left out of .45 ACP's catalog is now counted. Catalog 98 → 99; TMP 32.7% → 32.3%; at scale, AMP and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Labelling update. #

Open tip match loads that some listings label BTHP or HPBT are now counted as OTM.

Classification update: 9mm Luger, 5.56 NATO, .300 AAC Blackout and .45 ACP, no rating changes. #

Bullet types were identified from the products’ listings. Box counts were corrected. 16 items in 9mm Luger's catalog were reclassified out of it. 3 items previously left out of 9mm Luger's catalog are now counted. Catalog 286 → 273; at scale 44 → 42; AMP 4.9% → 4.8%; TMP and rating unchanged. 3 items in 5.56 NATO's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 67 → 64; TMP 47.8% → 50.0%; AMP 25.4% → 26.6%; at scale and rating unchanged. 6 items in .300 AAC Blackout's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 79 → 73; at scale 21 → 20; TMP 26.6% → 27.4%; AMP 11.4% → 12.3%; rating unchanged. 2 items in .45 ACP's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 101 → 99; at scale 34 → 33; TMP 33.7% → 33.3%; AMP 5.9% → 6.1%; rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Method update. #

Ratings now hold steady near their lines. A caliber’s rating changes only once its American-owned share is at least 0.25 percentage points past a rating line (5%, 10% or 20%); inside that margin it keeps the rating it had at the last update. The shares themselves are published exactly as before, and no figure changes. Ratings published before this update are not recalculated.

Method update: 9mm Luger, .300 AAC Blackout, .45 ACP and .357 Magnum, no rating changes. #

The report now counts only listings that distributors currently report. A listing a distributor has stopped reporting is retired after three missed updates, and a stock figure FIDO holds for checking is counted only once it is confirmed. At this update, retiring unreported listings trimmed four catalogs slightly; no held figure was left out. 5 items in 9mm Luger's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 292 → 287; TMP 15.1% → 15.3%; AMP 4.8% → 4.9%; at scale and rating unchanged. 2 items in .300 AAC Blackout's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 82 → 80; TMP 24.4% → 25.0%; AMP 11.0% → 11.3%; at scale and rating unchanged. 2 items in .45 ACP's catalog were reclassified out of it. Catalog 103 → 101; TMP 33.0% → 33.7%; AMP 5.8% → 5.9%; at scale and rating unchanged. 1 item in .357 Magnum's catalog was reclassified out of it. Catalog 25 → 24; TMP 4.0% → 4.2%; at scale, AMP and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Classification update: 9mm Luger and .300 AAC Blackout, no rating changes. #

Bullet types were identified from the products’ listings. 5 items previously left out of 9mm Luger's catalog are now counted. Catalog 288 → 293; TMP 16.0% → 15.7%; AMP 5.2% → 5.1%; at scale and rating unchanged. 8 items previously left out of .300 AAC Blackout's catalog are now counted. Catalog 74 → 82; TMP 27.0% → 24.4%; AMP 12.2% → 11.0%; at scale and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Classification update: 5.56 NATO and .45 ACP, no rating changes. #

Bullet types were identified from the products’ listings. 1 item previously left out of 5.56 NATO's catalog is now counted. Catalog 66 → 67; TMP 51.5% → 50.7%; AMP 25.8% → 25.4%; at scale and rating unchanged. 1 item previously left out of .45 ACP's catalog is now counted. Catalog 102 → 103; TMP 33.3% → 33.0%; AMP 5.9% → 5.8%; at scale and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Classification update: 9mm Luger moves from Critical to Scarce. #

Bullet types were identified from the products’ listings. Product brands were identified. Brand ownership was classified. 6 items previously left out of 9mm Luger's catalog are now counted. Catalog 282 → 288; at scale 45 → 46; AMP 5.0% → 5.2%; rating Critical → Scarce; TMP unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Method update: 9mm Luger moves from Scarce to Critical. #

Frangible ammunition now counts as ball, completing the definition of non-expanding range and practice ammunition introduced October 11. Five listings that had been excluded are counted again, and bullet types were identified from the products’ listings. 3 items previously left out of 9mm Luger's catalog are now counted. Catalog 279 → 282; TMP 17.2% → 17.0%; rating Scarce → Critical; at scale unchanged. AMP shows 5.0% on both days (14 of 279 → 14 of 282 American-owned at scale), either side of the rating cut-off. 5 items previously left out of 5.56 NATO's catalog are now counted. Catalog 61 → 66; at scale 30 → 34; TMP 49.2% → 51.5%; AMP 21.3% → 25.8%; rating unchanged. 2 items previously left out of .45 ACP's catalog are now counted. Catalog 100 → 102; TMP 34.0% → 33.3%; AMP 6.0% → 5.9%; at scale and rating unchanged. 1 item previously left out of .357 Magnum's catalog is now counted. Catalog 24 → 25; TMP 4.2% → 4.0%; at scale, AMP and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Classification update. #

Product calibers were corrected. This correction contributed to the 5.56 NATO change reported under R-0148 and has no separate effect on the figures. An earlier version of this entry repeated R-0148's figures.

Report update: CSG's first-half results, the antimony deadline, AAC's powder pause and an October assessment. #

Added CSG's H1 2026 results (defense +27%, Ammo+ −11.5%) and the November 27 deadline on China's antimony export suspension. Corrected the AAC account: production paused in December 2025 over a powder shortage, and the brand returned as PSA Ammo in July 2026. Added the Make American Guns Again Act (FY2027 NDAA) beside EO 14415, Serbia's ammunition export halt, and an October note to Our assessment. Updated copper prices.

Classification update: .300 AAC Blackout and .45 ACP, no rating changes. #

Bullet types were identified for products that had none. Those that are ball are now counted. 4 items previously left out of .300 AAC Blackout's catalog are now counted. Catalog 70 → 74; at scale 18 → 20; TMP 25.7% → 27.0%; AMP 12.9% → 12.2%; rating unchanged. 2 items previously left out of .45 ACP's catalog are now counted. Catalog 98 → 100; at scale 33 → 34; TMP 33.7% → 34.0%; AMP 6.1% → 6.0%; rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Method update: 9mm Luger moves from Critical to Scarce. #

The report now counts all non-expanding range and practice ammunition as ball. Winchester Winclean (a full metal jacket with a brass enclosed base) is counted as FMJ, and plated round nose joins FMJ, TMJ and flat point. 5 items previously left out of 9mm Luger's catalog are now counted. Catalog 274 → 279; at scale 47 → 48; AMP 4.7% → 5.0%; rating Critical → Scarce; TMP unchanged. 3 items previously left out of .357 Magnum's catalog are now counted. Catalog 21 → 24; at scale 0 → 1; TMP 0.0% → 4.2%; AMP and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Classification update: 5.56 NATO moves from Limited to Adequate. #

Products previously left out because their bullet type, caliber or brand was unidentified are now counted, now that each has been identified. Listings whose bullet type still can't be identified stay out of the figures. 21 items previously left out of 9mm Luger's catalog are now counted. Catalog 253 → 274; at scale 43 → 46; TMP 17.0% → 16.8%; AMP 3.6% → 4.7%; rating unchanged. 4 items previously left out of 5.56 NATO's catalog are now counted. Catalog 57 → 61; at scale 26 → 30; TMP 45.6% → 49.2%; AMP 17.5% → 21.3%; rating Limited → Adequate. 7 items previously left out of .300 AAC Blackout's catalog are now counted. Catalog 63 → 70; at scale 17 → 18; TMP 27.0% → 25.7%; AMP 11.1% → 12.9%; rating unchanged. 2 special-edition items in .45 ACP's catalog were moved to market analysis only: still ammunition, no longer in the report figures. 8 items previously left out of .45 ACP's catalog are now counted. Catalog 92 → 98; at scale 30 → 33; TMP 32.6% → 33.7%; AMP 6.5% → 6.1%; rating unchanged. 8 items previously left out of .357 Magnum's catalog are now counted. Catalog 13 → 21; at scale, TMP, AMP and rating unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Classification update: .300 AAC Blackout moves from Scarce to Limited. #

Product brands were identified. Brand ownership was classified. 9mm Luger: American-owned in stock 10 → 13; catalog, at scale, TMP, AMP and rating unchanged. 5.56 NATO: AMP 15.8% → 17.5%; catalog, at scale, TMP and rating unchanged. .300 AAC Blackout: AMP 7.9% → 11.1%; rating Scarce → Limited; catalog, at scale and TMP unchanged. .45 ACP: American-owned in stock 9 → 14; catalog, at scale, TMP, AMP and rating unchanged. Other calibers unchanged. Figures published before this update are not recalculated.

Correction: stock figures now use all distribution data, and rating cut-offs move to 5%, 10% and 20%. #

From the start of daily tracking until Oct 4, our stock figures came from only part of the distribution data we follow, while catalog totals counted all of it. That understated availability in four of our five headline calibers: 9mm, 5.56 NATO, 300 BLK and .45 ACP. We fixed how quantities are read on Oct 4, and figures from Oct 5 on reflect full coverage. With the corrected data, we also revised our provisional rating cut-offs from 1% / 5% / 10% to 5% / 10% / 20%. The old cut-offs were set before we had full data to test them against, and the top step is now called Adequate. Earlier figures and ratings stay as published and are marked. The step in the trend on Oct 5 is this correction, not a change in the market. .357 Magnum is unaffected: still none at scale.

Rating scale introduced: five ratings on American Market Presence™. #

Five ratings on American Market Presence™: None at scale, Critical, Scarce, Limited and Available. Thresholds are Provisional.

5.56 NATO methodology corrected: .223 Remington no longer counted. #

.223 Remington had been incorrectly folded into the 5.56 NATO figures and is no longer counted within the 5.56 NATO category. This is a data-accuracy correction, not a market shift: True Market Presence™ for 5.56 NATO moves from 11.9% to 12.3%, and American Market Presence™ moves from 3.0% to 3.5%.

Data gap: no figures collected on September 16. #

Shown as a gap in every chart, never filled in.

Section 5 updated: Winchester's $788.4M Army contract and munitions funding. #

Added Winchester's $788.4M five-year Army IDIQ (Sept 10, 2026, sole-bid) and Iran war funding context: Pentagon's $1.5T munitions request (Duffey/Bloomberg, Sept 11), Congress punting the $200B near-term piece to a December lame-duck vote (Sept 13), and CENTCOM's public "not concerned" stance on the same stockpiles (Sept 13). Added references 23–27.

Daily history begins: the first day of daily counts. #

The first day of the daily counts these reports chart.

Major update: report rebuilt around American Owned & Made availability, measured daily. #

Restructured report around American Owned & Made vs blended availability data, powered by live daily distributor data from FIDO (data.firehole.com). Introduced True Market Presence™ and American Market Presence™ as standardized metrics replacing the prior availability range format. Added "How We Measure" methodology section including American Made, American Owned definition, 250-unit commercial depth threshold, and pipeline context. Added "The American Ownership Picture" section with September 2026 data — 9 total American-owned qualifying listings across five calibers; .357 Magnum at zero. Added EO 14415 analysis. Added "What This Means For You" consumer section. Added "The Domestic Alternative" section covering WRE expansion. Updated CSG narrative with Nordic Police contract (August 2026), Iowa Army Artillery Complex groundbreaking (July 2026), and CSG IPO/debt structure. Added September 2026 component price increase notices (10–30%, first-person confirmed). Updated history tables with September 2026 True Market Presence™ figures. Previous June 2026 narrative preserved at Supply Report Archive. Added references 18–22.

Update: .357 Magnum and .45 ACP FMJ added to tracked calibers. #

Added 357 Magnum and 45 ACP FMJ to tracked calibers (first observation, no prior baseline). Refreshed 9mm, 5.56 NATO, and 300 Blackout FMJ availability ranges with current distributor data. Added FBI's $77.4M Federal/Remington contract and Fiocchi's scrapped Little Rock primer facility, with link to our American Made Primers resource. Added CSG/Kinetic Group family-wide June 2026 price increase. Flagged unverified inventory data from one distributor listing and excluded it from our figures.

Update: Berry's component price increase and the Lake City strike's resolution. #

Added Berry's Manufacturing component pricing increase (effective July 8, 2026) to Wholesale Pricing Pressure section. Expanded Lake City Army Ammunition Plant section to include strike resolution (May 7, 2026), military demand absorption of commercial overrun, and active Warren/Kim/Garcia/Raskin legislation to ban civilian sales from government-contracted facilities.

Update: CSG/Kinetic developments, the Lake City strike and nitrocellulose supply. #

Added post-acquisition CSG/Kinetic developments, Federal Ammunition U.S. Army agreement, counter-drone ammunition production analysis, Lake City strike, nitrocellulose supply chain context, Winchester pricing data, AAC production closure, AmmoSquared competing characterizations, and references section.

Initial publication of the Ammunition Supply Report. #